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Aug 18, 2026

How Would You Describe GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna?

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is holding an advantage over Democratic congressional candidate Leela Gray in a new Republican-sponsored poll of Florida’s 13th Congressional District, offering an early look at a race Democrats have placed on their 2026 House target list.

The survey, conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for Luna, found the Republican incumbent leading Gray 49 percent to 41 percent among 400 likely voters, with 10 percent undecided.

The eight-point margin is wider than the result of a separate Democratic-sponsored poll conducted by GQR, which showed Luna ahead of Gray 47 percent to 44 percent in a three-way matchup that also included independent candidate Tony D’Arrigo.

Because both surveys were commissioned by partisan interests, they represent snapshots of the race rather than independent forecasts. Still, the polling points to a Republican advantage in a district that national Democrats continue to identify as a potential pickup opportunity.

Luna was first elected to Congress in 2022 and won a second term in 2024 with 54.8 percent of the vote. She is seeking a third term representing the Pinellas County-based district.

Gray, a retired U.S. Army brigadier general, must first secure the Democratic nomination in Florida’s Aug. 18 primary, where she faces John Liccione and Timothy Brandt Robinson.

She enters the primary with a substantial financial advantage over her Democratic rivals. Federal Election Commission filings covering the campaign through July 29 show Gray has raised more than $1.2 million and had approximately $683,000 in cash on hand.

Gray has also drawn support from national Democratic and veterans groups, including EMILY’s List and VoteVets, as Democrats look for a candidate capable of competing with Luna in the general election.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has kept Florida’s 13th District on its “Districts in Play” list as part of the party’s broader effort to regain control of the House in November.

The district, however, remains Republican-leaning. The Cook Political Report currently rates the race “Likely Republican” and gives the district a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6.

Florida’s congressional map was redrawn again in 2026 as part of a mid-decade redistricting effort approved by the Republican-controlled Legislature and signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The new boundaries further reshaped the Tampa Bay area, removing additional Democratic-leaning territory in southern Pinellas County from Luna’s district while shifting its northern boundaries. Supporters of the map said it better reflected the state’s political geography, while Democrats and voting-rights groups challenged the plan as an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander.

The changes have made the path more difficult for Democrats seeking to defeat Luna, although party officials continue to argue that the national political environment could place Republican-held seats in play even in districts that lean toward the GOP.

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